Fay

I have been watching this storm since it was just off the African cost, now I'm more involved as it bears down on Cuba and threatens The Florida Keys, generally the Florida peninsula, and me.
I canceled a trip last week for the first time in these many years; we were to go to the Cay Sol Banks which I believed would put us in the direct path of Fay, I wasn't far off, I feel good about the decision even though my guests would have made many plans such as time off, coverage, house or pet sitting, flights, you know the drill.
Some sailors get prepared for storms by going to what they think of as a "hurricane hole", a place that offers good holding, wind blocks like mangroves or hills and trees. I think of hurricane holes as a place where to many boats are stuffed into one place, when one boat breaks loose it usually takes a lot of others to a watery end with it.
My hurricane plan is simply don't be there. Last year I sailed to Panama where storms don't occur but no storms threatened Florida last year, go figure; oh well I had a great time anyway.
Three thousand miles east of here, a week and a half ago, Fay didn't have a name, it was an area of disturbed weather, and then a tropical wave identified as 92 invest.
If you're a sailor with little confidence in "holes" then what's your plan? I try to sail off ninety degrees from the storms path-that's the "rub". The best educated, the best equipped do what I think is a very good job but there are so many things that can affect the intensity and track of a storm, prediction is akin to a black art.
92 was approaching Porto Rico and the Dominican Republic a few days back when the experts pointed out that it was surrounded by dry African air which would no doubt impede it's development, it did. It was also believed that the mountains of those two island countries would knock the storm apart or at least hinder further development, that's what happened, Fay is still a small storm.
Three days ago I was in Miami wondering, consulting with other sailors; some called me for my thoughts. Two computer models had the track headed to the Bahamas, Two went towards Key West, and believe it or not one had the storm at Cat III sitting of the outer banks of the Carolinas.
Lets see can't go to the Bahamas, can't go south or west to Mexico. I called my friend Captain Mike Ward up in Palm Beach he suggested that I sail up there and tie up at the dock, inland in a back yard, near the Waterway, a local watering hole. Of the alternatives this was the best, so I'm set, I have a plan. As of 12:00 EST Saturday.

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